John Hogue Presidential Prediction, Election Day 2012

Friends,
This will be my twelfth US presidential election forecast since 1968. Up to this point, I am 11 and 0 picking the next president of the United States by popular vote. No matter how good an oracular technique may be, the pressure of averages play more and more heavily against a winning streak. A batter who hits every ball for a “home run”, so to speak, pitched by fateful potentials of the future, must after 44 years swing and miss. Yet my oracular “bat” feels ready to hit another home run tonight.

The only time I felt uncertain about what message my “Oracle” had sent was back in the 2000 election between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush. Equal to my Oracle’s certitude that Gore would win was its doubt that Gore would win. I could not reconcile the paradoxical message.

Then the election happened, Gore one a majority of votes but the US Supreme Court in a legal recount dispute in Florida overruled the Florida State Supreme Court’s decision to do a state-wide recount, thus giving G.W. Bush Florida and the Electoral College votes to make him president.

It is another reminder to all Americans of every generation all the way back to the beginning of “America”: none of us has EVER voted for President of the United States. A handful of people in high places ever do that for us.

Are you surprised I say that?

I know a lot of you are. Over the years, I have seen shocked and widening eyes when I make such a declaration before giving an explanation that often changed that bewildered glare into a nebulous befuddlement and even protest. Just a few days back, Democrats came to my door asking if I had voted and heard me tell them that none of us have ever voted for president.

So, I tell you Americans once again, on this historic day of national election: you do not vote for president. You vote for some mysterious and mostly unknown group of people picked by your government in each state known as “electors” in the Electoral College.

It is “they” who chose “your” president for “you”.

Moreover, there are statutes in the Constitution that can allow these electors the power to ignore your vote and choose another candidate for which you did not vote.

One often hears from “get out the vote” people ringing one’s doorbell warn that a vote cast for anyone else than the Republican “Pepsi” or Democrat “Coke” candidate for president is effectively throwing one’s vote away.

Romney and Obama are the mainstream “soda pop” politicians offered up by the Democrat-Republican monopoly that suppresses all other independent voices in American Democracy. This two-faced monopoly controls the fashioning of state laws to gain one bipartisan advantage that DemoRepublicrats can agree on these days: let no independent candidates manage to get on all 50 state ballots. Make state qualification laws handicap their chances.

Where in one state the Republicrats need a few hundred signatures to get on the ballot, an independent candidate for president might have to get a quarter million to a million signatures, which is near impossible. Also, since money now has free speech and multinational corporations are now considered people, thanks to the Supreme Court Ruling on Citizens’ United in 2010, independent parties, even if they get on the ballot in some states have little money to get their message out on the airwaves.

The US democracy is flawed from the beginning using an Electoral College system and not a simple majority vote, as is the case in all other modern democracies. Citizens’ United may now take “citizens” made of flesh and blood out of the equation altogether.

If this is not reformed in the next presidential cycle, we may be four years away from a complete breakdown of the US Republic requiring a military junta to restore order.

That subject is something for me to write an entire chapter about in my forthcoming Predictions for 2013. It is another subject, for a time after 6 November chooses to keep “Coke-Bama” in office or replaces him with “Mitt Pepsi.” One is sweeter, the other more bitter and Tea Party Tangy for some. My oracle sees them both as just “soda pop” blowing bubbles that most of you like to chase around like children, not mindful, not even aware of your constitutional rights that are slowly, inexorably, being weakened and stolen from you, right in front of your nebulous eyes by a creeping Corporate coup d’état.

All seriousness aside, let us look into the crystal ball to see who will win this Coke and Pepsi contest on tonight’s American Political Idol show. I thought I would do something unique and share with you my forecast as it was written just shy 11 days from a year ago on 17 November 2011 (eleven days, on the eleventh month of the eleventh year of the 21st Century), documented and published on 21 December 2012 in Chapter 8 of Predictions for 2012.

I present it here in italics, with assessments from today (6 November 2012) inserted when needed.

***

Click on the cover to read more.

Well, here we go again. I roll the crystal ball in a crapshoot predicting who will win a US presidential election by popular vote. Appropriately this is my 12th crap shoot since I started back when Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey in 1968 falls on election year 2012. So far, I’m 11 and 0. That includes the controversial choice of Vice President Al Gore over G.W. Bush in the 2000 election. I had appeared on a number of radio shows, such as the Jeff Rense Program the week before the vote delivering my oracle’s cryptic message. I said Gore would win “by 500,000 popular votes” but I chased that by saying my oracle’s prediction would be “equally right and wrong”. I admitted on national radio more than once that this messenger didn’t understand the cryptic message.

The “right and wrong prophecy” was exactly fulfilled.

Gore did win the popular vote by a half-million over Texas Governor G.W. Bush. An American majority had chosen the next president. Yet, a disputed recount in Florida gave Bush the electoral voting edge in a key state over Gore by several hundred recounted ballots. In addition, a full recount of the state was denied by the right-wing leaning US Supreme Court. In short, 500,000 more citizens of the US chose the president as Gore because the US still elects its presidents with 18th-century rules. Citizens never vote for the president, all delusional belief aside. They vote for electors who then choose the president. If a majority of votes in your state lean to the Republican side, all the electors vote in the Republican candidate or vice versa. The will of a 500,000-edge in voters was erased by the politics of eight Supreme Court judges voting five to four in favor of stopping a recount in Florida. There’s very strong evidence to show that if the entire state had been recounted, Gore votes mismanaged in Republican controlled counties alone could’ve seen him win Florida by upwards of 20,000 votes!

There’s even clearer evidence that one ballot design mix-up in Palm Beach County decided the race for Bush with the aid of the Democrats. The now infamous “butterfly” punch ballot, designed by the Democrat controlled county government had misaligned the punch holes so that thousands of people in a very liberal county double punched on Gore “and” right-wing Independent candidate Pat Buchanan. With the Supreme Court stopping a more thorough, statewide recount, Bush was allowed to take Florida with little over 300 votes in the preliminary recount. The double punched ballots from Palm Beach County were disqualified in that count. Even Pat Buchanan didn’t believe he received 6,607 votes over Gore in a heavily liberal county.

I bring up this issue of the 2000 vote because astrology would indicate we could be heading for another butterfly ballot bung-up in 2012. On the day of the election, 6 November, there will be stationary retrograde Mercury in Sagittarius. The last time we had retrograde Mercury on Election Day was a dozen years earlier in the notorious 2000 election. Mercury goes into retrograde for about three weeks roughly every four months. You might have noticed every four months or so that communication is harder and often breaks down. That machines and computers don’t work so well. You watch TV anchors flub their copy for a few weeks and that copy scrolling through the teleprompter has more stories of a rash of plane and train crashes than usual.

If you watch the stars and planets as I do, you’ll be surprised how often these communication and mechanical dysfunctions happen during the three weeks of the Mercury retrograde, especially in the first degrees in and last degrees out of this aspect. The Florida butterfly ballot with its confusing punch holes, the messed up Florida recount, even the screw up of more people voting for one candidate who is then denied the presidency to the candidate who won a minority vote, are just the kinds of snafus one might expect during Mercury’s retrograde over skies of Florida in 2000.

Last time Mercury began its retrograde on 18 October 2000 in Scorpio during the final weeks leading up to, and through, election night. In the entailing confusion for the next 48 hours, after Gore half-conceded to Bush then changed his mind, retrograde Mercury dipped into and unbalanced Libra the Balancer before moving in direct course on 9 November in Scorpio. This was the catalyst of weeks of recount and legal disputes…

Mercury’s Retrograde Ballot Box
Twelve years and three presidential election days later, Mercury begins its retrograde at four degrees Sagittarius on Election Day, 6 November 2012. It passes over the ballot box of election night and retreats backwards over the skies on the weeks following the election. Recount in one or more states is possible, magnified in the background of destiny by Pluto in Capricorn (ruler of government) still in the clutches of the final days of a square with Uranus in retrograde Aries (malfunctioning enterprises). At the same time Neptune, also in retrograde motion (hidden enemies and unconsciousness) meets retrograde Mercury (muddled minded, forward progress hampered) in a Pisces-Sagittarius square.

There will be communication breakdowns. Assumptions will be made that aren’t verified. The question is, will this be 2000 all over again? If it is, I predict Democrat incumbent Obama wins the dispute, especially if his adversary on the Republican side ends up being one of several born under the sign of Pisces.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
It is important to note that these predictions were made eleven months ago when the Republican field of candidates was packed and attacking each other in a serialized “reality show” of RNC debates. At the time, Romney was definitely not the winner-apparent and would not be until after April 2012, four months later. In the following astrological assessment written on 21 November 2011, I took the reader through the astrological possibilities of the three hopefuls born under Pisces Sun sign and how they might fare with the stars on distant Election Day.

Romney caught leaving his press conference smirking. This is the conference where he tried to explain "sincerely" and with contrition how his caught on camera goof exposing him telling millionaires that 47 percent of the US population were not a bunch of moochers was "not what he meant".

I doubt Piscean Michelle Bachman will be on the ballot on 6 November. Piscean Rick Perry is a long shot dud, though I can’t rule him out completely. Piscean fishy Mitt Romney however has the best chance to “spawn” with history. Romney has powerful destiny aspects to the American natal birth chart mentioned in the previous chapter. [Predictons for 2012: Chapter 7: Primates in Primaries for President]

The Mercury in Sagittarius-Neptune in Pisces retrogrades may lead to voter confusion and disputes though and undermine his chances. Mitt Romney at the time of this writing on 21 November 2011 will be the last candidate standing in the Republican Primaries a few months hence but he has a Natal Moon in Scorpio that could be afflicted on election night.

I personally sense Barack Obama will win the popular vote by a slim margin but with such wacky astrology afoot, I can’t presciently rule out a disputed Electoral College decision against a Romney candidacy where Obama keeps his job but does not win the popular vote.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
I still hold to this prediction. My Oracle first foresaw Obama winning a second term before he had officially been inaugurated into his first term in January 2009. I went on in the following to explain the reverse negative image of actions made possible by a Mercury retrograde’s influence happening mostly for the three weeks “after” the election of 2012, rather than three weeks up to the election of 2000.

The 2012 presidential election night won’t be the same as 2000. The Mercury Retrograde in 2000 was at the end of its transit. In 2012, it’s at the beginning at the stationary retrograde position. Although the retrograde affects us the most at the beginning and end of its passage, I believe we won’t see this retrograde inhibit the voters from getting to the polls and punching wrong ballot butterfly holes.

The votes will be cast on 6 November 2012 with fewer successful attempts to sabotage access to voting like in 2000. The counting of the votes, however, may run into three weeks of recount and dispute where it’s quite possible under a Mercury-Neptune square in retrograde that conspiracies will be afoot trying to change the ballot results by electronic computerized skullduggery.

On election night 2012: Mercury in Sagittarius is trined Uranus in Aries. Seen from the collective mindset, it dispenses a climate or an unconscious desire in the voting public to go with the candidate who can speak to the American people’s positive aspirations rather than feed their fears. A Republican challenger would do well not to “go negative” on Obama in the final days of the election but use this climate to embrace intuitive flashes about a better future. Don’t paint a picture about what’s wrong with Obama. Paint a propaganda masterpiece about what good could come with a new president in office. Let go of tradition bound Republican fear politics. Mercury in Sagittarius trined Uranus is an aspect favorable to appealing to independently minded voters who are neither stuck in the liberal or conservative ideological ruts. Only a moderate Republican candidate, like Mitt Romney is capable of pulling this off and despite the fact that Jeb Bush in my oracle’s estimation would’ve been a hands-down victor against Obama in 2012, Romney’s tempering, shape-shifting political skills could smooze a different outcome than I have predicted, though I think the odds are long.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
As foreseen in November 2011, Romney did break out of the fold. He proved himself not only the last man standing in the long Republican debate gauntlet but also capable of shape-shifting his message in the final weeks of the presidential campaign away from the pretense of being a right wing extremist intent on carrying the Republican base, to a touchy feely moderate to capture the independent vote. This last trick caught Barack Obama flat footed and unprepared in the first of three presidential debates. Romney’s rush to the center hit Obama right where it hurt, his most immature flaw, his passive aggressive tendencies. If Romney wins tonight, it will be because that first debate, held before 60 million Americans, presented a kinder and politically less polarizing sales pitchman from Bain Capital in action, who carried more voters across party lines faster than Bain Capital shipped US jobs overseas to China. (See article about how Obama can lose.)

People began rethinking their beliefs about Romney. Indeed, even his final speeches these last few days have moved away from the traditional get-dirty attacks to take a higher tone of benevolence, albeit ever vague on the details, that a Romney presidency will bring on a better America. If enough changed and voted in favor of him, then the salesman will be sitting behind a desk in the Oval Office come January 20, 2013. Still, astrologically, Romney has more obstacles to surmount and then there is Obama’s Chicago campaign machine to contend with – a juggernaut when getting out the vote. The Dr. Who Daleks of the Democrats are pounding on every registered voter’s door in ways far more numerous and organized than ever was my experience in 2008.

(My goodness, even on my little island in the Pacific Northwest, they are as numerous as trick-or-treaters and phone marketers! I think I will toss them some of my leftover Halloween candy.)

Today I find it interesting that my Oracle in the following passage had spoke nearly a year ago about “forward” progress, being that “Forward” became Obama’s new motto (junking the “Change we can believe in” slogan) many months after I wrote the following:

The Mercury-Uranus trine favors electronics, social networking to get out the vote, etc. In this arena, Obama was brilliant in 2008 in the way he used iPhones and Blackberries to engage his base and get out the vote through social networking. He will have the edge once again in 2012; however, unlike Election Day 2008, Mercury and Uranus both are retrograde. That means Obama will have a harder sell this time around and less forward progress than before rebuilding an army of internet-connected supporters, but his Chicago political persuasion machine under the command of former “unregistered” political lobbyist and Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, David Axelrod, has fought hard elections and won before. They had their baptism of fire going against Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries. They are battle tested. Victory in this tight 2012 race goes to the candidate with the most experienced and well-oiled persuasion machine.

I look at the Election Day astrology and forecast the most bemused election result of my lifetime. Reason won’t play a strong part in how masses of people vote. Belief rules. Mercury in Sagittarius is in its detriment, thus attitude trumps fact. At the time of this writing a little less than a year before election day, I already recognize a lot of that going on in this presidential campaign. The posturing attitudes of both the Democratic President and especially the platoon of Republican Party hopefuls already make one endure in the latter case televised debate after debate filled with reality-show emotional outbursts, simplistic to the point of simpleton explanations of issues with an aversion to debate the devil in the details when solving America’s problems.

The 2012 election isn’t so much one Obama wins. It’s one the Republican primary process can lose before they pick a nationally viable candidate.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
It must be remembered that Romney was not a generally appealing choice for last Republican standing to be a candidate for president. GOP heavyweights stayed out of the running and the reality show altogether, such as Huckabee, and Jeb Bush. The latter my Oracle believed was a shoe-in against Obama in 2012 and still contends will very likely be the Republican’s candidate for president in 2016, if he should run – most likely against Hillary Clinton.

Next, I described in more detail in Predictions for 2012 who was my Oracle’s choice to win tonight’s election

Who will win and Why
At the time of this writing in November 2011, Obama waits in the wings as Republican hopefuls savage each other and try to attract base right wing voters by one-upping each other as to who can foment at the mouth more extremism. When they at last have a candidate chosen, Obama can turn on his election demagoguery and create a false perception that he’s the adult in this presidential debate. If he persuades enough people it’s true – he’ll win. If the Republican candidate can reel back the right wing extremism without throwing his Piscean fishy line too far into its depths, he might wean enough moderate independent voters to his attitude over facts and truth. In short, people on election day will vote with their gut, their irrational feelings, their likeability factor, their collective attraction to a good, simplistic – pabulum-matrix over problematic – slogan slinger. For those who love reason, it will be an altogether ugly election. Scary, even. A new low in manic minded choices and latent religious bigotry harbored against Mormons if Romney is left standing after the primaries and latent racism directed at an African American in office.

The fatuous “likability” factor gives Obama the edge, despite all the hate and acid I expect to be hurled in his face from the generally White-frightened Right. A majority of Americans still like him as a person, despite the fact that he has disappointed his Democratic base and not lived up to the plethora of way too many promises of change he pushed to be elected in 2008. That was his Natal Neptune Square his Sun in play. It is the character flaw of promising anything, no matter how impossible to get what you want: a woman’s love, a people’s love, a presidency. It’s the sign of a man who woos a woman and once he has conquered her heart, he loses focus and interest in her.

Obama isn’t a philanderer of women. He’s a political philanderer.

Obama has some formidable natal aspects that could counterbalance this character flaw in 2012. I don’t believe he’ll play the Don Obama Juan act again. He does eventually learn from his mistakes, though he’s slowly cautious to a fault when it comes to learning his lessons.

The Republican opposition would be caught in their own Neptunian illusions if they fuel their political strategies with blind faith in thinking Obama is besieged and too weak to win a second term. Neptune entering the Sign of Pisces in 2012 and staying there more than a decade in a water sign triplicity will moderate Obama’s impulse to promise the impossible as transiting Neptune draws ever closer to a trine with his Natal Neptune in Scorpio. Moreover, having a Neptune in Scorpio can almost “scorpionize” your astrological personality. That for once may actually be a good thing as Saturn will begin its two year transit of Scorpio and will be approaching Obama’s Natal Neptune in Scorpio at five degrees apart at election time. Even before it happens, transiting Neptune will exactly trine Obama’s (let’s be friends, let’s make up) Venus in Cancer, the Sun sign of the USA.

This is key to his reelection: “likeability factor.” Because the trine begins and continues through late September – just before the official Presidential campaign starts in earnest on Labor Day. The trine lasts through the November election and well beyond the recount. This positive Neptune-Venus factor despite being somewhat cooled by Neptune being in retrograde, brings forth a retrograde’s positive potential to see millions of voters “review” their relationship with Obama and give him a second chance.

Neptune and Venus in trine will help tilt collective destiny in his favor if he can reframe the dreams he oversold in 2008 with skillful contrition whilst propagating how change has been delayed by intransigence in US Congress in his first term in Washington. He can spread this myth of a change bringer happily unsupported by faith based, not fact based, attacks from the Right and on lukewarm support of his own party on the Left. He’ll be the likable adult in a capital filled with cranky Congressional children and a position-shuffling Republican candidate.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
Briefly as a short aside, I would like to make my US Congressional predictions for tonight. The Senate will remain in Democrat hands with a net gain to their slim majority of only one seat. The Republicans will retain their majority in the House of Representatives with less than ten seats lost and I am hard pressed to see the Democrats even gain five seats. Now back to what I wrote in November 2011:

Obama can play the hard reality giver, the “I’m the adult in Washington” card in 2012 owing to his Saturn in Capricorn being is strongly aspected and since Pluto is in Capricorn and is defining the times, it gives him the power to be perceived as a man of destiny. Saturn also being ruler of Aquarius grants Obama the resources if he should access them rightly, to be once again a powerful persuader as his Ascendant (outer expression sign) is in Aquarius. He was born with the planet of higher mindedness and expansion (Jupiter) also in Aquarius. Jupiter will be transiting Gemini in 2012 and be trined Obama’s natal Jupiter in mid to late June 2012. This will be the best moment when Obama can find the demagogic voice that engages millions in the American Spring movement, gaining enough of in their trust and votes to re-elect him for a second term. He could make the American Spring his springboard.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
He did not do that. His government effectively suppressed the Occupy Wall Street movement, the US Attorney General’s office coordinating with state and local police to unleash often-brutal police crackdowns. Obama is thus vulnerable tonight as a karmic consequence. The “Black Kennedy” has become the “Black Ronald Reagan” and the Occupy movement became the new version of the Reagan era air traffic controllers who went on strike only to have Reagan fire them all. It is not only Romney who alienates and flip flops before his base. Obama has often had bouts of his own Romnesia forgetting his promises to the extreme lefties of his party.

Next I assess why those RNC candidates still standing during the “RNC Survivor” debate shows of November 2011 would not do well today, this 6 November 2012:

Obama’s Natal Sun is strong in Leo, the sign of the fixed organizer. Mutable Piscean candidates as of this chapter’s writing in November 2011 dominate the current Republican stable. If one of these fish should swim it to the finish line as the Republican Candidate, it won’t be the best Sun sign to pit against Obama. Mutable signs when succumbing to unconscious habits tend to be hard to pin. They do the Mitt Romney flip-flopping Piscean fish thing. They go Bachman vague like a deer in the headlights at a hunting party at Rick Perry’s formerly named Nigger Head Ranch. They suddenly space out like Perry in a debate. “Oops”, there ends a Piscean space case’s hopes to unseat the Leo in the Oval Office in 2012.

Obi-Ron Paul-nobi.

Ron Paul, a Leo like Obama, turned Libertarian Leo candidate in a third party run is positively aspected by the Moon on election night, assuring if he’s willing to run that his will be the best third party raid on the National Election two-party monopoly since Ross Perot.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
Texas Congressman Ron Paul demurred to the political consequences for his son Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky if he did run rogue. Thus he missed this historic opportunity to lead the strongest third party campaign since Teddy Roosevelt ran against Taft with his Bull Moose Party exactly a century ago in the 1912 elections.

Now we return to my forecasts on the aspirations of Geminis Gingrich and Trump as seen from November 2011:

Trump? He’s Gemini. Sun sign of the double personality. Not a good election day for mutable air signs. The in and out, the bad Donald personality one day trumping the good. Like his political-astrological soul mate, Gemini Newt Gingrich, he sometimes has bold and refreshing ideas that get trumped by beating a dead horse with really bad ideas, like his shameless Obama birther campaign that had him leaving the race early on in the spring of 2011. Gemini mutability might prompt an impulse to get one of the Donalds back in the race in 2012. Then the other Donald will get back out. Then get back in – yadda, yadda, yadda. Donald Trump’s natal Pluto comes close to conjunction with Pluto in Capricorn on Election Day – making him a celebrity of the times. A man who equally personifies the very best and the very worst of times.

ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
As we now know “the Donald”, as Ivana Trump, one of his ex-wives used to call him, did threaten to return to the campaign more than once. Just recently he lowered himself into real Bad Donald mode with his laughable challenge to give five million bucks to any charity Obama so chose if the president would hand over papers proving he went to Harvard.

The Bull Moose Party.

Satirist Stephen Colbert of the Colbert Report appropriately responded with a one million counter offer if the Donald would lick Mr. Colbert’s nards and become his “scrotum holster”. This tea bagging allusion rather puts this last, and sorry episode of Trump in 2012 politics in the bathroom tonight. The Donald is on his “throne” as it were at the end of his search for birther and Harvard “papers” to wipe out Obama. Trump sits alone now stuck overtop the gurgling laughter of a toilet joke where it belongs.

Now what follows from November 2011 is my Oracle’s detailed astrological reasons why it believes I will be 12 and 0 come election night, tonight.

Whether you want to pin your poppycock on Obama being born a Kenyan or in a place nearly as exotic and far removed from the American mainstream states as hula hoop gyrating Hawaii, he’s the lucky recipient at birth of an astrological chart giving him ego-personality tools to fix his astrological faults. A square in one’s chart indicates where one needs to grow, where one needs to apply the positives of one’s life experience and character towards understanding and perhaps moderating bad habits and faults. Obama may have wasted his first term learning how to be president. Indeed, a year before he even ran for office I warned that Obama, blinded by his impatient ambition to woo America and become its president would come to his destiny too soon and too immature for the job. This is again his negative Sun-Neptune square inducing him believe his own impossible Neptunian dreams and his egoistic (Sun) part in the illusion.

It’s better to come to your destiny too soon than too late. I see that counter balances in Obama’s chart allow him to play enough catch-up to perhaps campaign at least as the president he was supposed to be, the one destiny intended for election in 2012, not 2008. By election time, Mars will transit Obama’s natal Mars. This might magnify anger against his reelection, but I think the stellar scales will be tipped towards magnification of new beginnings for a new term. The Moon on election night will be in Leo in conjunction with Obama’s Sun in Leo. This will magnify good emotions and feelings about him in enough people to give him a second chance at his destiny.

FINAL ASSESSMENT (06 November 2012)
So there we have it. The prophecy will now enter from the mysterious door of possibility out into the court of real actions and decisions of the American people tonight.

I have tuned into my Oracle and I do not feel its interior serenity about this prediction changing, though my conscious mind is not at all certain it is right. Nor have I voted for Barack Obama, folks. Yet the oracular feeling is constant. He will win; indeed, it may not be as close as the mainstream new spinners say. He may even win as much as 8.5 percent of the popular vote cast. The turnout will also be historic. That does not bode well for Mitt Romney. If electors choose Obama over the popular vote, it will be caused by the disruption of the polls in solidly blue states from Hurricane Sandy. On 29 October on Coast to Coast AM, I predicted that the elections would not be postponed, which is the case today.

Obama will still win the superstorm-ravaged states of New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Maryland and New England. Moreover the disruption to swing-state Virginia was not that severe, so even an act of global warming nature that neither candidate addressed in their debates will have much influence on polling there.

Ohio is going to Obama in 3 points at least, though I think it can be as high as 5 points. Pennsylvania will not shift to Romney in the last minute. The Latino vote (outside of the Cuban vote) may give us some blue meanie surprises for the GOP in Florida, as Latinos will be a major factor in advancing Obama’s fortunes in Nevada and lesser so in Colorado.

Ayn Rand’s muscle bound “Atlas”, GOP Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan, will “shrug” in his home state of Wisconsin as red Republican’s get the Obama “blues” by a hair’s breath.

Buck up, GOP, your take of the gubernatorial and state legislature elections will continue to be Republican red hot tonight, no doubt making Democrats see “Red” and yell “Blue-Hoo!” in the coming two years echoing off the marble of many a state capital.

The state that Romney governed will go handily to Obama as expected but also will have a new Democrat senator, Elizabeth Warren, win over Republican Brown in a very tight decision.

Obama may clinch his election in the Electoral College quite early tonight as four years before, perhaps by 8 pm Pacific, like last time. That is especially so if the swing state of Virginia goes to Obama early. I think Obama will lose in North Carolina, though. He will win in Iowa, because evangelicals cannot bring themselves to vote for a Mormon as president, no matter how much money the Koch brothers throw or extraterrestrial influence the Planet Kolob can muster.

I think Obama might actually clinch the Electoral College by 10 pm Pacific time.

In closing, I must caution that these final observations are less hard clad prescient than what my Oracle cast in November 2011 in the italics passages above. So, we shall see. Moreover we shall “hear” what I have to say to a national audience when I appear after midnight Pacific Time on George Noory’s Coast to Coast AM. I will be asked to assess my success or my failure. In addition, I may be asked to forecast the outcome of weeks of a new Mercury retrograde recount if there is a dispute of several swing state votes.

I am scheduled to appear between Midnight and 12:30 am Pacific, but the producer of the show just phoned me as I finish up editing this piece. She said I might be longer or at a different time. So I pledged to be available from 10 pm to 2 am Pacific, tonight.

I hope you will listen in. George Noory has nine heavy hitting forecasters and counting, converging on Coast tonight.

Get out and vote! Thank you.

John Hogue
(06 November 2012: Published at 2:07 pm Pacific Time)

PS—

 More Links to Articles on the theme of  Election  2012

How Obama could Lose

Mitt Romney

Rick Perry Oops

 

 

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3 Comments

  1. Rocker
    Posted 8 November 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Bravo John (now that we know the results). Nate Silver has nothing on you!

    HOGUE
    Thank you, Rocker. I was happy to see that Nate Silver at the present time using mathematics, had come to many of the same conclusions I documented using my “Oracle” nearly a year ago, on 17 November 2011, when I wrote the chapter predicting what would happen in 6 November 2012. I think it is really cool when two forecasters at opposite ends of the human mind’s potential can use pure subjective intuition and pure empirical mathematics to come to the same accurate prediction. Bravo Nate!

  2. Karla
    Posted 8 November 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    John,
    I want to start by saying that I really like your website and love watching you on T.V. and hearing you when you appear on C2C. I always check in with your website whenever something “happens” (ie…Arab Spring, Sandy, Presidential election…). I checked it on Tuesday 6th, on Wednesday, on Thursday, And again today-now 3 days AFTER the election– you are posting your comments as if they were posted before the election results???? I’m a little disappointed.

    HOGUE
    Karla, there are about a million people out there who know something you may not know. It is called the “refresh” button. It helps one update the page sent by your browser. Now I’m not certain that’s why you had an old page image up on your screen for several days. I’ve got a million people out there who do have a functioning browser, who do refresh their pages, who KNOW that I posted the current article well before the events described. Moreover, in the article in italics where passages from a book I wrote and documented on 17 November 2011 and published on 21 December 2011. Many thousands of people downloaded that book at that time and have evidence of the truth and veracity of those predictions about how the campaign would turn out, how Romney would be the one facing Obama and how he would lose the election. The final assessment at the end of the article was written on the morning of the election and published, along with the other assessments clearly inserted and dated in the 17 November 2011 passages from “Predictions for 2012” at “2:07 pm” Pacific Standard Time.

    For the rest of you reading this pathetic and slanderous comment from Karla, shaking your head at her, I allow it to be posted here so you can get a taste of how no good deed in accurate forecasting goes unpunished. (Chuckle…) Be advised, when you start being very accurate in your documented forecasts you will get in far more trouble with people having issues with reason and truth than if you are some Ed Dames or other, making wildly inaccurate forecasts. Karla’s view of the world sides more with many current Republican numbers crunchers and pundits who can’t face or understand a reality that didn’t fit their projected expectations masquerading as a “forecast” of a Romney victory. This failure to perceive reality is a cancer that is destroying the American Conservative movement in America and I am not one to celebrate that. One needs balance in life as well as in politics of life.

    The loss of a rational noble opposition to the liberal movement can only, eventually see liberals also succumbing to a kind of insanity if there isn’t a reasonable, critical opposition keeping their ideas rational and grounded. I’ve lived long enough to remember and experience men and women conservatives in such a noble opposition. Since then the Republican Party has gone to the Karl Roves and Karlas of the world and I am concerned that the shock they received on 6 November has not yet penetrated the bubble of their denying world view.

    I will post this comment and my reply in the next posted article. I will expand on its theme concerning the next critical and potential descent into irrationality awaiting the Republican Party leaders when the deadline for ending the Bush tax cuts looms on New Years Eve

  3. B. Andrew
    Posted 6 November 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Well, i’ll make this prediction. Unlike Bill Clinton, Barack Obama will go even further to the left and fail to become a moderate. He’s too much of a narcissist to do so. I also think the Republicans are finished in this country, unless they start opening their arms to illegal immigrants and start pandering to voters who want big government and entitlements. The new wave of American voter wants to be taken care of by a nanny state (much like how Western Europe is governed) that makes all of their decisions for them.

    It’s sad really. I just don’t see how this country will change to one where people pull themselves up by their bootstraps and do whatever it takes to accomplish the impossible and hard to reach. John F. Kennedy’s “don’t ask what your country can do for you…” speech no longer applies to America.

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