Category Archives: US Election 2012

Election 2012: can Rick Perry beat Barack Obama?

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I have been making US presidential predictions since Nixon beat Humphrey in 1968. Forty-four years later and with an 11-and-0 track record my oracle begins to see the shape of potentials to come in the 12th auguring. That is, I am beginning to get a clearer understanding who will lose either in a close election or a landslide against the candidate that for years now I have already and consistently predicted will win the 2012 election.

My predictions across 44 years often do not match my personal choices pushed into the ballot box every presidential election. What I have been saying on Coast to Coast AM and writing in these blogs since early 2009 has angered many of you who lean on the right politically. Now in fairness, my predictions today will attempt to make people on both extremes of the political spectrum have an opportunity to either be angry with the messenger or look at their political attachments.

I have said over the years that the one man who could defeat incumbent President Barack Obama will not be running in 2012. The man was a credible governor of a key, and economically vibrant US state. He was a capable leader during times of natural disasters and most importantly, someone who can tango with the hard core right during Republican primaries, get nominated and then do what Richard Nixon so shrewdly did in 1968, deftly moderate his message to woo the center where most American voters, the independents, the largest block of voters, politically live. The man who can beat Obama if he ran in 2012 had one problem though: the wrong name — Bush.

Former Florida State Governor Jeb Bush has his older brother’s name. Rightly or wrongly, President George W. Bush (2001-2009) is someone most Republicans want to stuff in the bag of forgetting where they stuffed Nixon. They want to dump that history and move on to take back the White House. Thus you have to white wash your hands of an administration that was in power when America suffered its deadliest, unprotected surprise attack, wiped out a national economic surplus, ballooned the national debt at record levels spending it on ruinous military occupations and nation building projects in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, it did little to nothing to moderate Wall Street and Banking abuses, or reform a ballooning financially baloney housing market that deflated when the Great Recession crashed in as a catastrophic punctuation to eight catastrophically mediocre years in office.

Jeb Bush is politically intuitive as well. He knows that Bush Fatigue will keep him out of a presidential run. The US Senate is his next move and I predict that is as far as he will go up the political ladder this life.

Democratic and Republican Parties thrive on nourishing the short-term memories of the voting public. The Obama re-election campaign would waste a big portion of the billion dollars they will collect if they dump it in ads going down a sinkhole of Bush blame.

This Recession is now Obama’s Great Recession, as are the two economically ruinous military adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama now adds a new war in Libya and indirect military involvement to come in Syria. (Yes, that is coming, albeit under the auspices of a UN effort.)

Obama will have to own these wars and economic challenges if he wants to own success in solving them. Between now and the November 2012 presidential election night, he will take America out of Iraq and mostly out of Afghanistan as I predicted years ago.

The Libyan Civil war will go on, with indirect US logistical support well into 2013. That is despite today’s kafuffle of a constitutional dispute seeing both Democrats and Republican congressional legislators suing the president for ignoring the upcoming 60-day limit to prosecuting his war powers in Libya without congressional approval.

None of this will actually threaten Obama’s bid for a second term more than the rise of a new Ronald Reagan from Texas. If a Bush from Texas might have soured Jeb Bush’s future as president of the United States, a tall, God loving and charismatic Texan getting into the presidential political arena in the near future is the GOP’s Great White Hope against Obama in 2012.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has the best chance of beating the president after Jeb Bush. His social conservative merits are unquestioned, so the extreme right is mollified by his anti-abortion, anti-gay (do not ask do not tell), evangelical Christian beliefs that support “intelligent design” creationism as a viable scientific theory.

Perry’s long time marriage with his childhood sweetheart is morally solid. There is no Newt Gingrich talking up religious right themes while walking out on three marriages with three sinful and adulterous affairs. There is no Romney-care to explain or apologize for. Perry is pro-tax reform and pro-states rights to the point of thinking out loud about secession and he has publicly Goddamned the government he would captain if elected to Washington. He is pro-Life, pro-business with a big Texan “B”, pro-drilling baby drill and he is not a Mormon made of wooden personality wearing magic underwear. I am sorry, my Mormon readers, I must express a hard religious-political reality in the Grand Old Party. Enough core Republican primary voters view you as a cult that if they had a red-blooded, red-state governing, fire-breathing evangelical Christian to choose, the blue-state Mormon moderate Republican is out.

Perry is dashingly handsome too. Sorry Newt and your supporters. Ideas no matter how smart and compelling do not get a fat guy into the White House since President Taft a century ago.

Perry is pretty and he has the stature and avuncular Ameri-CAN machismo that all the best ideas wrapped in a corpulent, piggish body do not sell.

Heck! Perry even looks a bit like Ronald Reagan.

Perry has economic bragging rights Obama cannot yet match.

He runs a state that has weathered the Great Recession quite handily with respectable economic booms in the Austin Texas region, a growing housing market and a state economy that is on the move into the black — the black of Texas Tea, that is, black gold.

Texan success is based on something climate-illogically dubious: a fossil fuel industry set to take a fossil fuel-addicted global civilization down the toilet when the climate cascades out of control in the 2020s. That will not be a problem for Perry in the short term. Forget science for faith. Gather the votes and short-term memories of enough Republican voters for Perry in the primaries. A majoirity will believe as he believes that there is no climate change requiring a complete rethinking of business acumen. And anyway, many will endorse Perry’s rationale that whatever is going on with the climate is less important than you getting a job. You getting back to work no matter what the cost of sustaining our civilization or your children’s future on this fever wracked world must come first before we hug the trees.

If Perry enters the Republican race, he will quickly end the trajectory of other contenders. The GOP and the Democrats may have their designated nominees running for president a year before they are officially endorsed by the Democratic and Republican Conventions in the summer of 2012. Gone goes Palin, Gingrich, Bachman. Romney will spar with Perry through the primaries but he will lose his Republican moderate northern verses right wing fire-breathing southern state primary battles early on and the Republican show will be over by the Super Tuesday primary early in the year.

Then come the national elections.

If Perry runs, the presidential elections of 2012 will look more like 1860. States rights over Federal rights return in the national debate with the Federal side of the argument taken up not by a Caucasian emancipator of African Americans but an African American President.

Obama’s mysterious karmic relationship with Abraham Lincoln will see history repeat itself with a national election that will split states between Perry and Obama along the Mason-Dixon secession line. The Northern states go with Obama, just like Lincoln, only in 1860, southern states stayed out of the election preparing for secession.

In 2012, Perry will be the first major US Governor running of president who openly mused about secession since 625,000 Americans died in a civil war to prevent the breakup of the United States. During the 150th anniversary of year-two of the Civil War that saw the bloody battles of Second Bull Run, Antietam and Fredericksburg, Perry will win all the former Confederate states of that conflict, plus a few Border States like Missouri and Kentucky. The swing states will be in the Midwest and far West. A shadow of the civil war will cast itself on the political map of blue and red states in 2012 but the real danger of secession’s return is waiting in the 2020s.

Obama in 2012, like Lincoln waging the Civil War, will turn the ballot tide first in the West if he is to win re-election.

Perry is the only Republican after Jeb Bush who might make this election close enough to gain a disputed victory for the GOP, but he is less able than the Bush that cannot run. Still, I see might in the last sentence does not mean victory in the White House for the Right.

I predict Perry will lose because he is too extreme.

Obama will be a two-term president.

John Hogue
(15 June 2011)

Prophecy Post Statement
Today enjoys one of the longest lasting lunar eclipses in years, best seen in night skies over the Middle East, over Syria, over places erupting in political volcanic violence. In a year of 12 great global catastrophes, one per month, the next blog will examine which new natural disaster becomes the apocalyptic climate-changing flavor for June. Is it the Chilean volcanic eruption sending an ash cloud ring around the Southern Hemisphere, shutting down air flights in and out of New Zealand and Australia? Will it be Arizona’s largest forest-brush fire in history? Join my free newsletter if you are not yet a member and you will be the first to know about my report on disasters in June. Also, starting in the next blog comes part three of my Tornado Diaries and an assessment of my predictions for 2011 as we approach the halfway point in the critical year in human history.

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