The Muslim world has its own North Korean style hermit kingdom, virtually closed off from the world, from journalists and the Internet. Yet, just like a very positive variant of a virus, the spread of Arab revolution out of Tunisia to Libya’s west and out of Egypt to Libya’s east has infected the closed kingdom of strongman Muhammar Gaddafi with an information dis-ease. The vectors of this fever of openness with symptoms of democratic desires are cell phones, iPhones and laptops. It is a social disease of an electronic networked kind carried by Facebook and twittering software on electronic communication gadget “mosquitoes” that can infect even a starkly free-information quarantined country like Libya with a “malarial” wave of free speech contagious and fatal to dictators. Before Gaddafi’s regime came down with this “cold” a statement of the late Hafez al-Assad of Syria echoes again in the halls of Damascus, Teheran and down the totalitarian’s halls of Tripoli. Regimes in the Arab world with the guts to fire on their own rebellious people never fall. Now that totalitarian theory is being tested in Libya.
Word is getting out of a life-and-death struggle of the people of Libya with the Gaddafi regime. More “infections” of the truth buzz ring cell phones in and tweet out of Libya revealing cracks appearing in the cyber-hermetically sealed dictatorship.
I predict Gaddafi is going down violently, like Ceausescu in 1989, “Romanian-style”. The question is, how long will it take and how bloody will it be?
Comparisons have been drawn comparing the current regional revolution of Arabs to that of the fall of Eastern European communist regimes in 1989 when the Soviet Union gave up the standoff with the Western democracies as the Cold War began to end. The Berlin Wall fell, then the regime of East Germany collapsed. Where East Germany went so went the region, being the most influential satellite member of the Soviet Warsaw Pact alliance, just like Egypt in the Arab world today is a trendsetter.
The fall of the Erich Honeker regime in East Berlin caused a regional chain reaction across Eastern Europe with communist dictatorships falling mostly with a whimper except one: the eccentric strongman Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania, every inch as daffy a dictator as Gaddafi. Relinquish power? Only over his dead body, like Gaddafi threatens today.
Romanian street demonstrations quickly turned into massacres then pitched battles between opposing regular and police military units for and against Ceausescu in a short, sharp, tank shell riddled and exceedingly bloody civil war, ending with support of Ceausescu rapidly — literally — draining out like blood poured over the cobble stones of Bucharest. Ceausescu tried to escape, was arrested, lined up against a wall and summarily shot with automatic weapons.
What happens in Libya will be similar but I fear it will take longer and be a far more bloody civil war. Unlike Romania’s civil war, Libya is among the most deeply entrenched tribal societies in the Arab world. This civil war will be won or lost by who can manage the complex alliances and promise patronage to key Libyan tribes. Western Libya mostly has tribes allied with Gaddafi, whose stronghold is Tripoli.
Most of the rebels who seized Benghazi and the eastern half of Libya are from tribes out of favor with Gaddafi. The oil profits from the world’s 17th largest oil producer go mostly to the western Libyan tribes. Western Libya has oil fields but they just lost the lion’s share located in the eastern provinces. Gaddafi will try to take them back, promise reward of the rich oil industry to those western tribes and sub-tribes leaders who support the crackdown.
People inside Libya phone the outside world about Gaddafi’s acts of genocide. Believe it. This civil war could descend into a Libyan tribal life struggle to control oil resources before and Gaddafi is gone.
At the time of this writing (22 February 2011), Gaddafi and his tribal allies in the secret police and armed forces are ruthlessly fighting with and liquidating rebels in Tripoli while air strikes on Benghazi continue.
I predict Gaddafi intends to launch his heavily armored forces against Benghazi, the heart of the revolution.
The main Libyan tribe, Warfallah, numbers one million people. They were the first tribe to support the current anti-government movement. Not a good sign for the future of Gaddafi’s regime, or his plans for a crackdown because they man much of the militia and regular army forces of the 120,000-man Libyan military. Nevertheless, the Libyan military continues to unleash jet bombers, helicopter gunships and naval gunships taking pot shots at Benghazi. That indicates both sides have a mix of military might. People are taking sides.
Gaddafi pays for an unknown number of ruthless sub-Saharan mercenaries numbering 7,000 operatives, including tank and armored units in what is known as Gaddafi’s Pan Islamic Legion. I sense because of his dwindling support from the Warfallah, he is calling in favors from many more guerilla and terrorist forces across Africa whose insurrections he bankrolled for four decades. These gathering mercenary forces flying in by transport are the spear point of a planned strike on Eastern Libya. It is because of them and the atrocities to come that Gaddafi will soon lose support from all of his people — East and West Libyans — and come to bloody ruin
Another reason why this could be far worse than the Romanian revolution of 1989, Ceausescu’s bloody fall did not rock oil prices across the world threatening high prices that could stall economic global recovery. Libyan oil fields have stopped pumping and exporting. Uncertainly hit the stock markets hard on Tuesday with the Dow Jones dropping -178.46 points. The Oil APR price today closed $96.92 a barrel, close to passing an ominous threshold, rising beyond the $100 mark. The last time that happened was in 2008. Then came the Great Recession.
The week is young, like the Libyan civil war. Prepare for triple digit per oil barrel prices sinking economic growth soon. What is coming is not a stock market correction of the DOW Jones by five or six percent. The next economic crisis begins. The one I foresaw in detail. Triggered by oil prices and dated in my predictions for 2010 and forecasts for 2011.
If I were you, reader, I would top my gas tank. The fall of Gaddafi is coming but this Jim Jones of Arab dictators could take the Libyan oil industry with him in a bloodbath stretching for weeks. That means Africa’s fourth largest oil exporter will be off line for a while. That means oil exports across Africa are disrupted. Expect this to bring fuel and food riots in South Africa. Europe is the biggest importer of Libyan oil. Expect this to trigger another EU financial crisis that will impact the US and Chinese economy, as I detail in Predictions for 2011.
The 16th-century French prophet, Michel Nostradamus (1503-1566) might have set down a verse or two about the fate of Muhammar Gaddafi.
Century 4 Quatrain 62 of his history of the future Les Propheties states:
Vn coronel machine ambition,
Se saisira de la plus grand’armée,
Contre son prince fainte inuention,
Et descouuert sera soubz sa ramée.
A colonel will through machinating (plotting) ambition.
He will seize the greatest part of the army,
Against his Prince through a false invention.
He will be discovered under his branches.
In 1995 I wrote the following interpretation that was published on p. 345 of my 1,000-page tome Nostradamus: The Complete Prophecies:
In 1969 Colonel Gaddafi overthrew King Idris in the Libyan Revolution. He seized the greatest part of the Libyan army’s support in a secret coup (false invention). The final line of the quatrain may cryptically relate details of a notorious milestone in Gaddafi life to be reached 17 years later. On the night of 5 April 1986 … a terrorist bomb exploded in a Berlin disco, killing two people, including a US serviceman. The [US] Reagan government chose to find evidence suggesting that the order for the bombing came from Gaddafi. (Actually, other far more compelling evidence implicating the Syrians and Iranians in the bombing was ignored by Reagan. But I suppose an attack on the most vulnerable terrorist-sanctioning nation would suit his political movie script better than a military attack on the deep heartland of Islamic terrorism.) Nine days later…US bombers attacked terrorist-related targets in Libya. Bombs were also aimed at the Al Aziziya barracks in the desert outside of Tripoli where, it is said, Gaddafi and his family sometimes reside in a bedroom designed to look like a Bedouin tent. Gaddafi’s two sons were slightly injured by flying glass and his 15-month-old adopted daughter, along with 100 people, were killed in what was clearly an assassination bombing mission. Gaddafi survived unscathed.
A translation of line 4 is difficult. In earlier books I had taken the figurative meaning of ramée to deduce a green arbor or green flag symbolizing Gaddafi’s Libya. A more down-to-earth translation of ramée as branches might better describe Gaddafi the moment two bombs slammed into his tennis court and another took out his front door. One might have found him crouched beneath the branches (or legs) of his desk, hiding his face from the flying glass.
Rebooting my interpretation fourteen years later, let us take on the riddle of line four in the context of Gaddafi’s near future.
With the word ramie Nostradamus may describe the scene of his end. It means branches; arbor, green bows, green arbor. The etymology could mean by extension a green Bedouin tent, the green Libyan flag, or perhaps the scene of his end is such a tent pitched in an oasis. Although I do not personally believe he will leave Libya alive, I could be wrong. Gaddafi may escape to the green arbor, bows and luscious vegetation of the tropics. He could fly out of the desert living out his days a guest of dictator Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Perhaps it is there he will be killed when Chavez falls.
Another quatrain and famous anagram indexed Century 10 Quatrain 96 could describe the life and bloody fate of Gaddafi and his son:
Religion du nom des mers vaincra,
Contre le secte fils Adaluncatif,
Secte obstinee deploree craindra,
Des deux blessez par Aleph & Aleph.
The Religion named after the ocean will overcome,
Against the sect of the son Adaluncatif,
The obstinate, deplored sect will be afraid,
Of the two wounded Aleph (A) and Aleph (A).
The anagram Adaluncatif has baffled interpreters for the past several centuries. I take it to be a riddle about Gaddafi. Adaluncatif is an anagram. Reshuffle the letters and they form “Cadafi Luna.” Allowing for phonetic spelling changes, it is possible to get “Gaddafi Luna,” “Gaddafi of the Moon,” or “Gaddafi of the Crescent of Islam.”
Now the next riddle. What Religion is named after the ocean that will overcome the sect and son of Gaddafi?
The term “Oceanic religion” could be somewhat awkwardly describing Gaddafi’s bed on the night of the US bombing raid on his home in 1986.
Author and former British Parliament member George Tremlett has been one of the few Westerners invited into Gaddafi’s house in the center of a military barracks outside of Tripoli. The bombed bedroom is enclosed in glass, like a shrine, without one shard of shrapnel or piece of broken masonry disturbed since the night of the bombing. Tremlett’s book Gaddafi: The Desert Mystic contains a photograph of the bed; at the head we see an illuminated and vividly colored panoramic photo of ocean waves crashing on the rocks. Could this wall papered photo religiously bemuse the 16th-century prophet?
A number of religions, such as Tibetan Buddhism, describe themselves as oceanic.
We could go out on a limb a little further.
Around the same time in early 1986 that US jets bombed Gaddafi’s bedroom, the Oregon Commune of Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh disbanded. Bhagwan was in the midst of a world tour seeing him thrown out of 21 countries by CIA and Reagan administration pressure until his meditation resort/university was reestablished in Pune, India in 1987.
Rajneesh changed his name to Osho before he died in early 1990 from what his followers and doctors claim was heart disease accelerated by being poisoned with the heavy metal Thallium in November 1985. He claimed to have been poisoned during the three days he disappeared from all contact by the press and his lawyers, while under the custody of US federal agents.
Rajneesh explained that the new name Osho was derived from William James’ word “oceanic,” which means dissolving into the ocean. Oceanic describes the experience of being simply religious without the limits of mafias of the soul or dead dogmas. You are it and it is an oceanic, blissful experience.
Osho is also used as a Zen salutation that can essentially be translated as “oceanic consciousness.”
Gaddafi gets bombed around the same time the guru of a new religion metaphorically named after the ocean is spreading its message on a world tour. Though this association of Gaddafi and Osho might sound far-fetched, it would not be the first time Nostradamus dated an incident in future history by chronicling two unrelated events happening at the same time only as a time clue rather than having any direct connection.
Nostradamus also hid more than one decodable meaning in his anagrams. (For instance, see Mabus.)
The anagram Adaluncatif gives us Cadafi Luna. Yet, remove “A(dal)u(n)cat(i)f” and we also get Nidal.
Gaddafi was once a close friend and patron to the notorious Palestinian terrorist Abu Nidal in the 1980s.
Drop the c and the remaining letters a-u-a-t-f can phonetically spell “fatau,” for Fatah, as in the Palestinian Fatah party.
Fatah now runs the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank region under Israeli occupation. At one time it included a terrorist branch known at the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).
In other words, Cadafi Luna is linked to Abu Nidal (terrorist) and the PLO of Fatah as it may relate to the near future.
The secular workweek begins with Gaddafi Luna threatened with overthrow. The workweek will soon end with Friday — (the Muslim holy day, church day, their “Sunday” according to their calendar).
This Friday watch the Fatah Party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank join the radical Palestinian party of Hamas, controlling the Gaza Strip for a “Day of Rage” demonstration across all Israeli occupied Palestinian territories.
Gaddafi, a patron of Hamas, will drag his country down into civil war this week while the Arab Revolution reaches the doorstep of Israel this Friday in a protest against the US veto that put a kibosh on a recent United Nations Security Council resolution to declare Israeli settlement construction illegal.
Watch Friday when the Arab Revolution amps up in intensity to a whole new dimension, shifting from an uprising against the oppression of its own Arab-born dictators to an rebellion against oppression of the US-backed Israelis in Palestine.
If these interpetated layers of the Adaluncatif anagram message are correct, Gaddafi’s civil war and fall is linked to the coming rage in Palestinian streets.
Where then do the clues walk us to next?
Solving the riddle of the last two lines of 10 Q96:
The obstinate, deplored sect will be afraid,
Of the two wounded Aleph (A) and Aleph (A).
The sect of Gaddafi is afraid of the two wounded A and A. How do we decode just what the Hebrew letter for A (Aleph) and its Arabic variant (Alif) represent?
Gaddafi intends to give his dictatorship to one of his sons, of which he has seven. The most likely grooms for dad’s dictatorship are Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi and Mutassim Gaddafi.
The prophecy might imply the two will be wounded, after the father is deposed.
Apparently, these Hebrew/Arabic letters are not the same as our letter A. Instead they correspond not to the vowel sound “ah” but to the glottal stop that precedes it. With that said, one cannot rule out that Nostradamus the obscurer would lead the idle seeker off the etymological trail. Perhaps he was more interested in the spelling of the word in Roman letters to hide a name consisting of two “A”-sounds when spoken?
If so, then the first and second Alif could represent a kind of phonetic spelling of the most likely heir apparent’s name, Saif (a)l-Islam (a)l-Gaddafi (meaning Sword of Islam from Gaddafi)
He is the son of Adaluncatif. The designated successor to lead the obstinate and deplored sect of Gaddafi’s mutant Marxist-Socialist-Islamic system now rejected by the people of Libya.
Successor A and A will be mortally wounded?
A and A also could be Nostradamus hinting the most popular chant of the demonstrators in Libya: Allahu Akbar! (God is Great!) In this way the faith of Allah is the oceanic religion foreseen to succeed over this obstinate, deplored sect.
If we move beyond all the tangled speculation inherent in picking loose a line of clarity out of cryptic Nostradamus, the fires of revolution overtaking the Middle East could cleanse the way for a better and more democratic era.
My oracle’s forecasts for 2010 and those published for 2011 indicate sudden and unexpectedly positive breakthroughs in the Middle East are quite possible.
Israel in 2011 has an excellent opportunity to be a positive game changer, supporting Arab democratic aspirations while isolating radical Islam based in Iran. I wrote a chapter about this potential destiny in my prophecies for 2011.
(22 February 2011)
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