The Recession is Over (If you are Rich)

Friends,
The stock market balloon-bubble blows up a plump speculation speckled number into the 9,000s this week. Talking econ-heads on the news exult rhapsodies out of meager increases in housing market growth as some great turning of the tide. The return of a weak pulse of economic growth is tuned up, coked up, into a trendy trend of amplified drumbeating Wall Street jungle drums saying we are coming out of the economic gloom.

The elite see the world through their own entitlement-tinted ivy-league glasses. They are right; of course, the recession is over — for them — but what about you and I? What about the hundreds of thousands who will lose their jobs, their homes and their finances this August? What about the tens of millions who will tentatively hold onto jobs downsized and earnings cut this August? The barons of the licentious markets might mumble a platitude about that and shift in their seats a bit uncomfortably. Then they will spout pure dogma as truth that, well, jobs are always the last thing that improves in a recession-cum-depression, right? The Secretary of Treasury, Geithner, will pensively pout a pandit pose to ABC News’s Chief Washington Correspondent George Stephanopoulos, and the host of ABC’s Sunday morning news show This Week with George Stephanopoulos, that the recession is over, however, jobs‚Äîyou know, the thing most of us people below the elites kinda need to survive — will not recover until “around this time next year.”

Say it straight, Geithner.

Most of us down here in the real economic world have a full year to endure. So if you are marginally employed looking over your shoulder for pink slip fairies, or already out of a job, your recession (your economic Depression actually) has another year to run while Wall Street speculators play, Obamagogues pump up the “hope-change-hope” litanies and financial investment banks pump out the million dollar bonuses to members of the CEOlygarcy that mostly screwed the financial pooch on their watches.

This economic “improvement” is the beginning of another bubble. We are still on destiny’s wrong track towards inflationary depression by the end of 2010 or early 2011 because the fundamental and structural flaws in the system are being dressed over, not changed, as I predicted in detail here.

Geithner’s sunnyside-up your economic egg on his face about jobs reminds me of a comment “Anne” wrote way back around the time Tim Geithner was chosen by Obama to be his Secretary of Treasury designate back in late November or early December of last year. The back-and-forth between us is perhaps interesting to read given that seven history-packed months of economic upheaval, stabilization and some glimmer of economic improvement (for the Geithners of the world at least) has since passed judgment about Geithner’s leadership at Treasury

ANNE
Two weeks ago, the stock market went up on a Friday [21 November 2008] and the MSM portrayed it as a result of an Obama appointee. But if that is true, then why had the stock market been going down that very same week when Obama was making other appointments to his cabinet?

HOGUE
The answer is, those appointments were not directly related to business. The “uncertainty” of Obama’s choices was a factor in the market’s perceptions of insecurity. The AIG bailout and the oil price hitting new lows were other factors. Economics are actually rooted in intangible psychological mindsets. By that Friday, players sought and received confidence in Obama’s economic team rumored to be headed headed by Geithner. They know him. It doesn’t matter that as part of the Federal Reserve in New York he’s been in the middle of [the financial bank] mess and not, so far, achieved a turnaround. The market wanted a reason to have confidence again. They got it and we’re on the longest rally since this set of market crashes began back at the end of September [2008]. It’s not rational. The markets are not motivated by rational thought.

ANNE
The mainstream media just ignored that though and continued to attribute the mild surge in the market due to the cabinet appointment.

HOGUE
It was influenced, as weird as that might seem. Now the market believes it can “hold on” until the brainy guys and gals in Obama’s economic team can save them from themselves. It’s illusory but illusions are powerful tools in economic trends.

ANNE
If the stock market is ruled by announcements and fears on a daily basis, it seems to me that that would be the last place I’d put my money. You’d have a better chance at the casinos. It doesn’t make sense.

HOGUE
The market mass mind is a casino mentality, saddled to Darwinian inhumanity. Some day a future humanity will look back at us and marvel at our economic inhumanity. The so-called free market will be remembered as the Licentious Market. It was based on unconscious animal law: survival of the fittest pack leaders over the herd.

The people of the future humanity will wonder, “How could a system unconsciously applied that extinguished dinosaurs be sustained as a system for potentially sentient human beings?”

John Hogue

(04 August 2009)

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