Predictions for 2009 Assessed–Part 1

Friends,
In July we passed the halfway point through the year. Let us put my feet to the fire. How has my digital book Predictions for 2009 fared? Here are some highlighted quotes followed by today’s assessment.

President Barack Obama’s first 100 Days: hope frustration and impatience placated:

PREDICTION
“Obama’s campaign promises did pledge immediate action, and I predict his first 100 days will initiate legislation unprecedented in its scope and revolutionary thrust. The launch of a new ship of state is easier than captaining said vessel through the uncharted seas of [the new age of] the Aquarian Water Bearer. Obama’s power of oratory and charm will have to win back the heart of his frustrated and impatient wife [the American electorate] more than once because change will come far slower than anyone wants.”

ASSESSMENT
Change did come far slower after the historic speed of Obama’s first legislative marathons in the first 100 days. Today, more than ever, the president has to use his power of oratory to placate growing frustrations about the banking industry dragging their feet on reform, while AIG pays off million-dollar bonuses with bailout money. Auto giant GM downsizes in bankruptcy and the Clunkers for Cash program begins Obama’s grand vision of replacing gas guzzlers with fuel efficient cars, but the devil of change is in the details, and money infused by Congress for the program was bungled. Also, green ire is up. The replacement cars are deemed too little on the improved mileage and perhaps will be too late in putting a dent in greenhouse gas emissions.

Congress is in recess with no Health Care legislation passed. Obama coaches patience one moment, gets money for the clunker program just before legislators went on a month vacation. Before he too goes on holiday to the Grand Canyon Obamabluster in a speech outright threatened to push Republican legislator opposition aside if in September when Congress reconvenes they drag their feet on health care reform. By the way, it has a new name. Health Care Reform is euphemistically called “health insurance” reform these days.

The economy has stopped its free fall but the reforms Obama promised, such as lassoing the excesses of Wall Street speculation and investment bank abuses have not been even initiated. The people are growing impatient. Obama’s poll numbers for the first time began to fall in July. Is his honeymoon with the electorate over?

U.S. Unemployment at 10 percent

PREDICTION
“The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimates unemployment will reach 9 percent. I predict it will be 10 percent.”

ASSESSMENT
I wrote the above at the end of 2008. We are currently at 9.4 percent in August 2009 and though unemployment is growing slower (just 240,000 lost their jobs), it ain’t “just” and though slowing, unemployment is still growing. To actually be in a true economic recovery we will need in two years to create jobs for 15 million people. This number covers the currently unemployed along with those of the younger generations coming into the work force as part of the US population growth curve.

Move forward, don’t look back:

PREDICTION
“Obama’s new slogan for the first 100 days in office will be in essence: Move not to the Right. Move not to the Left. Move forward, America!”

ASSESSMENT
To the relief of the right and surprise of the left, the first 100 days had Obama decidedly uninterested in taking revenge, or supporting investigations into supposed abuses of the Bush administration. Obama even used the slogan, “Moving forward,” as his intent and so far, all attempts by the left leaning members of Congress to rattle skeletons from the Bush years out of the closet, such as Vice President Cheney’s purported CIA terrorist hit squad plan, does not go forward with Obama’s blessings or political pull. He will continue moving forward, beyond the Bush Years and leave vengeance far behind for the greater good of change.

More storms for Hawaii in 2009?

PREDICTION
“Blue Hawaii, watch the storms of 2009. The ocean winds, they are a changin’. The recent flooding rains, winds and power outages sending the island of Oahu into darkness for a few days are a taste of climate changes descending in 2009 and beyond.”

ASSESSMENT
In Predictions for 2008, I forecast more stormy weather was in Hawaii’s destiny as climate change sped up and that this would continues for decades to come. The year ended with storms that knocked power out in Oahu (during Obama’s post presidential election vacation that time). Then comes the hurricane season in 2009 five months after I wrote the above. Already three tropical storms (the last two of them a weakening Hurricane-turned tropical storms Lana and Felicia) advance west from the eastern pacific in the island chain’s path. This is not a rare fluke. This is your future Hawaii, for every hurricane season for the next 36 years. You may become the next Florida coast, as the western coast of Mexico becomes your western coast of Africa where hurricains spun your way are born.

There is a whole lot of 2009 left to live through. Come see what is coming:

Predictions for 2009

 

John Hogue

(08 August 2009)

This entry was posted in Economy and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.

Post a Comment

Your email is never published nor shared. Required fields are marked *

*
*

* Copy This Password *

* Type Or Paste Password Here *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>