Iranian Revolution: Why it is Unsustainable

Friends,
The day before the beautiful memorial for Michael Jackson was held at the Staples arena in Los Angeles, something was initiated by President Obama and President Medvedev of Russia that could make objective that which was Michael Jackson’s long sung theme: “We Can Change the World” from Cry (from the Invincible album). Thanks to the agreement signed by the two presidents, nuclear arms reductions by the two former Cold War superpowers possessing 90 percent of all the atomic weapons on the planet will resume. With the stroke of the pen years of efforts by the previous Neo-Conned American administration conspiring to keep in power by resuming a cold war with Russia have been turned away. Moreover, Nostradamus’ ominous prophecy about a pair of northern “eagle” kings of Aquilon attempting a new friendship, undermined by a terrorist Middle Eastern source, has for now been restored upon the path and destiny of friendship once again.

I cannot tell you how significant and directly affecting your lives was Monday’s meeting of the Russian and American president. If this effort to restore a damaged friendship had not continued there is every indication in Nostradamus that we would be on the path to thermonuclear war with Russia in the early months of 2012. Now, the Bald Eagle king and the Double Eagle king have removed the missile swords from their hands and offer them in friendship once again. The danger of war may have been pushed back to Nostradamus’ longer timeline taking us down 13 more years to 2021 as the next crisis period of the eagle kings. More than enough time to fulfill Michael Jackson’s wish to change the world.

You can read about this powerful prophecy of Nostradamus and the Eagle Kings and how the countdown to war can be calculated in the Epilogue of Nostradamus and the Antichrist.

Now to the Revolution in Iran:

We continue my commentary on STRATOR’s Geopolitical Weekly report, entitled “The Iranian Election and the Revolution Test” by George Friedman. Do check out STRATFOR at www.strafor.com.

We begin with a review of the last two sentences of Friedman’s segment from the last blog:

FRIEDMAN

This is what happened in Tiananmen Square in China: The students who rose up were not joined by others. Military forces who were not only loyal to the regime but hostile to the students were brought in, and the students were crushed.

A Question of Support

This is also what happened in Iran [in June]. The global media, obsessively focused on the initial demonstrators — who were supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents — failed to notice that while large, the demonstrations primarily consisted of the same type of people demonstrating. Amid the breathless reporting on the demonstrations, reporters failed to notice that the uprising was not spreading to other classes and to other areas. In constantly interviewing English-speaking demonstrators, they failed to note just how many of the demonstrators spoke English and had smartphones. The media thus did not recognize these as the signs of a failing revolution.

HOGUE
I have often stated that success in prediction of the future often relies on being intuitively sensitive to larger collective-unconscious forces influencing individuals and masses of people for certain periods of time. Nostradamus (1503-1566) was a past master at framing history’s repetition in the cyclic return of important astrological configurations. If Ecclesiastes is correct in saying there is a time for war, a time for peace, a time for love, a time for hate, etc., these “times” often match astrological configurations. For instance, American leadership regularly makes rash decisions, or, faces unanticipated military crises during the progression of Mars over the American birth chart’s natal position of Mars 13 degrees in Cancer.

The Cuban Bay of Pigs debacle (April 1961), the ramp up to the Cuban Missile Crisis (September-October) 1962 and the rush of US Congress to give President Johnson war powers to start the Vietnam War on spurious evidence coming from the Gulf of Tonkin incident (August 1964), etc. ALL of these happened when Mars transited Cancer over its natal position in the United States birth chart.

Mars set its time for rash war again during the Bush Administration’s rush to plan an invasion in Iraq (2002). We have a new “time” for rash action coming in August-October of 2009. How we view realities in what is now a more radicalized, isolated and militant Iran could bring diplomatic breakthrough or a mad American rush to war with Iran. Especially, if the West promotes a false belief in waging a war of liberation the majority of Iranians want.

There is indeed much more structure than one thinks in the subjective art of prophecy. Not only do windows of predictable behavior arise with astrological precession but also larger cycles of time predispose predictable Pavlovian acts. The ancient Cosmic Calendar set up by early Mesopotamian star gazers of Sumer clocked the ages comprising 20 centuries each we like to call Piscean or Aquarian, etc. The smallest Sumerian unit of cosmic time is the span of normal years it takes for the Sun’s vernal equinox position to move backwards by one degree: 72 years. This then is divided into a day (Yang) and night (Yin) units of 36 years apiece. Without awareness yet flowering in the majority of humanity, it takes little clairvoyance to predict that the period of yang 36 years will lean out of balance towards the cerebral or butt head machismo. People think too much in their decisions and feel too little. Now we are in the reverse swing of drunken unconscious pendulums of time. We “feel” and get “sentimental” avidly believing too much when we need to think and reason, test our beliefs with fact.

I must point out that most of the worst incidents of Mars in Cancer rushes to ill-informed and ill-conceived decisions all came in the final years of the last “yin” cycle of 36 years (1936-1972) when emotion more easily guided American presidents and people to heed their feelings more than facts on the ground. With this in mind, let’s return to Friedman’s article:

FRIEDMAN
Later, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke Friday [19 June] and called out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, [the media] failed to understand that the troops — definitely not drawn from what we might call the “Twittering classes,” would remain loyal to the regime for ideological and social reasons. The troops had about as much sympathy for the demonstrators as a small-town boy from Alabama might have for a Harvard postdoc. Failing to understand the social tensions in Iran, the reporters deluded themselves into thinking they were witnessing a general uprising. But this was not St. Petersburg in 1917 or Bucharest in 1989 — it was Tiananmen Square.

HOGUE
More than this, the twittering classes captured by their own emotions, carried them from one collective escalation to another after the vote was cast on 12 June. A demand for voter recount turned rapidly into rebellion and chants of “Death to Khamenei!”

There was no revolutionary leadership. People in the movement were carried away by hysteria, making up the movement as it went on. Mob psychology once in motion and escalating becomes that irresistible force that in a cosmic yin cycle inevitably will collide with its opposite immovable object in riot gear, wielding clubs, breaking down doors in the middle of the night to drag people away. This is the other and larger “mob” mind emotive Khamenei’s command had unleashed. It is organized. It is well led. It is armed. It comes down on Iranian students in June 2009 like small-town kids juiced up on stimulants dressed in Red Chinese uniforms with guns and bayonets and driving tanks over the upscale educated kids in Tiananmen Square back in 1989. These Iranian Revolutionary Guards are also blinded by their emotions. Extreme, religiously righteous zeal terrorizes the dwindling crowds of protesters.

When we see the world whilst in the grip of our emotional centers, truth is simplified and reflection is swept away by absolutes. The Revolutionary Guards brush away the protesters from the streets. The Western media sweeps away any facts that disturb a simple belief or broad conclusion. Iran, for instance, being predominantly urban must therefore, as a nation of city people, be sympathetic to the urban protestors in Teheran. The media assumes therefore that what happens in Teheran is happening or can happen in all Iranian urban centers if given a chance by a lapse of vigilant Ayatollahs.

FRIEDMAN
In the global discussion last week outside Iran, there was a great deal of confusion about basic facts. For example, it is said that the urban-rural distinction in Iran is not critical any longer because according to the United Nations, 68 percent of Iranians are urbanized. This is an important point because it implies Iran is homogeneous and the demonstrators representative of the country. The problem is the Iranian definition of urban — and this is quite common around the world — includes very small communities (some with only a few thousand people) as “urban.” But the social difference between someone living in a town with 10,000 people and someone living in Tehran is the difference between someone living in Bastrop, Texas and someone living in New York. We can assure you that that difference is not only vast, but that most of the good people of Bastrop and the fine people of New York would probably not see the world the same way. The failure to understand the dramatic diversity of Iranian society led observers to assume that students at Iran’s elite university somehow spoke for the rest of the country.

Tehran proper has about 8 million inhabitants; its suburbs bring it to about 13 million people out of Iran’s total population of 70.5 million. Tehran accounts for about 20 percent of Iran, but as we know, the cab driver and the construction worker are not socially linked to students at elite universities. There are six cities with populations between 1 million and 2.4 million people and 11 with populations of about 500,000. Including Tehran proper, 15.5 million people live in cities with more than 1 million and 19.7 million in cities greater than 500,000. Iran has 80 cities with more than 100,000. But given that Waco, Texas, has more than 100,000 people, inferences of social similarities between cities with 100,000 and 5 million are tenuous. And with metro Oklahoma City having more than a million people, it becomes plain that urbanization has many faces.

HOGUE
These are facts that news anchors from the chest thumping Bill O’Reilly of the left (Keith Olbermann) to the Fox uh-Oh!-Reily-esque anchors of the right will not present you:

Emotion sells. Simple-minded bromides sell.

When news networks descended into corporate hands, fair and balanced reporting had to take second place to the economic imperative of ratings.

Ratings rank higher than facts.

The press must turn a profit and in so doing, the reports on Iran of the last few weeks play out more like the sentimental flush and hysteria of a reality show, rather than a report on reality.

John Hogue
(09 July 2009)

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