Predictions for 2009 Assessed–Part 3

Former Maryland congressman Michael Steele is the new Republican National Committee Chairman.

Former Maryland congressman Michael Steele is the new Republican National Committee Chairman.

Friends,
Here is a list of the topic of interest, the quote documented in December 2008 or early January 2009 and today’s assessment of forecasts at the half-year point for Predictions for 2009:

Obama on Immigration Reform–Postponed

PREDICTION
“Obama and the Congress in 2009 won’t be able to stem the tide of illegals and close the borders, nor will his agencies make sense out of any census of illegals when the upcoming US Census count is made in 2010. By the end of 2009, the illegal alien issue will be little changed.”

ASSESSMENT
In the first half of August Obama stated that his full agenda, including Health Insurance Reform would require the postponement of immigration reform until 2010. One thing may be changing. The economic crisis along with beefed up numbers of border guards has cut back illegal immigration for economic reasons significantly; however, on another front, political refugees fleeing Mexico’s drug cartel civil warfare is on the rise, as predicted elsewhere in Predictions for 2009. My oracle anticipated that war as the biggest new event to come underneath the mainstream media radar for 2009, as you will see in a quote, below.

Democrats will begin liberalizing the Supreme Court

PREDICTION
“Well, shucks folks, it’s 2009 and the [Democrats] are back in power in the White House and the Capitol building, and they could also go far to liberalize the Supreme Court too in two to four years.”

ASSESSMENT
In August, Justice Sotomayor was sworn into the Supreme Court to replace retiring Justice Souter in September. Republicans fear she will prove to be a little more a left-leaning activist judge than Souter, an appointee of Republican President H.W. Bush whose record in the Supreme Court was not as socially conservative as Bush Sr. and his party had hoped.

The next Republican National Committee Chairman

PREDICTION
“The party of Waspish values needs more color and contrast and it will gain it. The next RNC chairman will be an African American.”

ASSESSMENT
Long shot African American Republican congressman Michael Steele beat three Caucasian and two other African American hopefuls for the post.

A New Age of Socialistic Politics

PREDICTION
“The pendulum of politics, for better or worse, is swinging left to a more socialist leaning era. Whether it remains left socialist or national socialist beyond 2009 is something I’ll be watching.

ASSESSMENT
Government bailouts of the private sector, back door temporary nationalization through bankruptcy protection of General Motors, a public sector expansion of health care coverage for 37 million uninsured US citizens are a likely reality by the fall of 2009. There are more than cracks of community consciousness emerging in the snooty image of the “Me” age in America.

The trend to the socialist, for better or worse, is one that will last as long in American politics as its antithesis that has just passed out of favor — Reaganomics: 30 years. Those in complete, stubborn and blind opposition to this destiny rather than engaged in socialism’s moderation, are like horse and buggy politicians railing against the coming of the automobile over a century ago. The car cannot be stopped. Build a better car.

Now to Foreign Policy:

Obama taking hands-on command of nuclear proliferation

PREDICTION
“Obama’s early on association with former Senator Sam Nunn, a major advocate for stemming nuclear proliferation, indicates that where Bush was lax, Obama will be hands on controlling the spread of nuclear materials for weapons.”

ASSESSMENT
On 19 May 2009, President Obama met with Kissinger and another respected former Secretary of State George Shultz, former Senator and Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Sam Nunn, and former Secretary of Defense William Perry to talk about nuclear weapons and nonproliferation. The four publicly endorsed what he is doing, especially the constructive meetings he had with Russian President Medvedev during the G20 gathering in April on reducing the threat of Russian-sourced smuggled plutonium. Obama has pledged to begin the serious progress long overdue, perhaps launched just in time even, to make the dream of a nuclear weapons free world possible.

Now to something most American futurists did not anticipate for 2009 as one of its most significant and overshadowing crises:

The Mafia Civil War in Mexico

PREDICTION
“Border crossings of new economic refugees will decrease just as political refugees increase as Mexico will continue to plunge deeper into a mafia-versus-government civil war that already claims 500 people murdered every month.”

ASSESSMENT
“It’s a war!” protests President Calderon of Mexico to the slow to perceive media north of the border earlier this year. He has since deployed 45,000 troops and 5,000 federal police across 18 Mexican states to wage war with proliferating drug cartels in fighting, mass assassinations and mafia hits that carry off and kill on average 500 people a month. There was a time in the mid decade when the loss of that many civilians and police on the streets of far-off Iraq was called a war by the same US media who seemed blind as a crack head to the escalating conflict just south of the US border when I wrote the above in December 2008. It took the spread of the war into US territories in 2009, the death of US citizens to snap the media out of their isolationism despite the fact that over 200 Americans have been killed in Mexico in drug cartel related murders since 2004.

My oracle predicted much more the media still does not anticipate for the latter half of 2009. You can read it here:

Predictions for 2009 

John Hogue

(24 August 2009)

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