The Shape of Congress to Come

Friends,
I have been going through the dated and documented detritus of many passages I intended for e-books but cut and saved for future reading. I documented and dated back in December 2007 the following passage for Predictions for 2008. I found it rather surprising to read today, what with Norm Coleman conceding his legal bid to keep Minnesota’s US Senate seat Republican.

Back in November 2008 I predicted Democrat Al Franken would win the voting count dispute and take Coleman’s place. Those of you who read my final list of predictions posted on this blog just before the presidential elections know I predicted the Democrats would gain more than 60 seats, even though it was a mathematical impossibility at the time I made the call. My oracle has more than once snatched an accurate forecast from an irrational situation, so I waited to see. It was already onto something as far back as December 2007 when it accurately pinpointed the political future of Al Gore in 08 plus the shape of Congress to come with a little dig at Vice President Cheney for fun.

***

Now that Vice President Cheney’s term in office is about to end, will a draft movement to compel Al Gore to run for a second term succeed? No. As I said years ago, his window for a second term prophetically yawned wide open for election in 2004. Once those windows shut, history is stingy about opening them again. However, missed opportunities can bring Nobel Prizes. Al Gore, if he does not start taking better care of his health will go down in history as one of America’s greatest Presidents who ever rule solely in the private sector.

I have one more subject on my laundry list before we explore in prophecy the man or the woman who would be elected president in 2008.

Whoever they will be, they will have to wrestle with a new Congress. The Republicans will lose big in House and the Senate elections.

The Republican Party leadership forgot the caveat of the first great Republican President. Abraham Lincoln said, “A house divided cannot stand.” The political karma of 8 years of ruling by division and strengthening your base gave the Republican Congress and President power over a polarized nation. The country is tired of it. A house divided for eight years will see the House and Senate united under new majorities. The Democrats will get 60 seats in the Senate and achieve a two-third majority in the House of Representatives. The party that embraces the aspirations and hopes of independent voters has a future. No others.

***

ASSESSMENT:
Gore did not run for President despite the fact that when I wrote it there was a big push by many Democrats to compel him to run. The 60-seat majority became official today with Republican Coleman conceding defeat when the Minnesota State Supreme Court rejected his recount complaint. He could have extended his fight into federal courts for eight more months but fortunately thought about serving the people of Minnesota and the nation rather than serving his political hubris. Perhaps Coleman self-served his political ambitions to run as Governor, which he will indeed do, and I predict he will win next year.

I would add that more defections of Republican moderates might be on the way, taking the count beyond 60 seats.

A two-third majority in the House of Representatives requires 290 seats warmed by Democrats. At the current seat warming of 257 Dems to 178 Republicans, my prophecy is close but off by 33 seats. At best I could say that prophecy if eventually correct would have to rely on a further meltdown of the Republican Party reduced to its core extreme right wing legislative members. Right now, I cannot see how they could lose an extra 33 seats unless their soul searching and political self-destructive process continues into the mid-term elections of 2010.

John Hogue
(30 June 2009)

Predictions for 2009

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