Of the four elections most critical to the inclination of the future in the year 2009, the fourth presented at the conclusion of this series may be the most significant and it is next, in May.
The terrorist attacks of a Pakistani-based jihad commandos calling themselves the Deccan Mujahadeen intended to set more than fires in iconic hotels, train stations and mow down hundreds of civilians across the Mumbai financial district back in November of last year. They wanted — indeed, they need — India to politically move to the right and fundamentalist orange Hindu-supremist intolerance. Radicals need to radicalize their enemies to make them more like themselves, ready to clash, to struggle.
The shooting up of Mumbai, especially centers crowded by many foreigners and foreign business people was a direct stab at Prime Minister Mahmohan Singh’s free market sympathetic Congress Party platform. They want him and his party to lose in May. They need a Hindu Nationalist regime like the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party, AKA Indian People’s Party) back in power, one that will twist impatiently the arm and threaten a weak Pakistani government to hand over terrorist leaders it has in custody and shut down their training camps. The Deccan Mujahadeen need an Islamic apocalypse like the one that came so close to taking place back in the first months of 2002 after the last al-Qaeda inspired commando raid out of Pakistani bases nearly saw commandos break into Indian Parliament, guns crackling and grenade splinters crashing and slicing.
The terrorists tried inciting the then Hindu Fundamentalist BJP government of Shri Atal Vajpayee into a boarder war with Pakistan. Letting slip nuclear weapons was an option openly entertained and popularly supported by mobs from the streets of Islamabad to New Delhi. If not by the grace of a pausing hand of Vajpayee, the button to launch nuclear war would have been pushed before the prevailing winds of the monsoon rains might blow the fallout back on India. War came very close as my own sources in Indian strongly contend — so close that certainly the Western press, so self obsessed at the time with the trauma of its own terror attacks on 11 September 2001, failed to tell you just how close the world came to a regional nuclear war from April through May 2002.
Islamic terrorists want to set in place through gut wrenching goading of their Mumbai attacks last November, a popular reaction that places into power the same kind of Hindu nationalist government that might launch nuclear war, sacrifice Pakistan to martyrdom, radicalize a billion Muslims and force the US and NATO out of Afghanistan. Nuclear war would fulfill the dream of terrorists like Usama bin Laden: reestablish with the nuclear annihilation of moderates in Pakistan a radical Islamic Caliphate in Afghanistan and what is left of Pakistan, turn their black flags West and in the Islamic version of the apocalypse, march on Jerusalem. (A comprehensive prophetic account foreseen by the Prophet Muhammad and Nostradamus of this Jihad crusade can be read in Chapter Eight, Black Flags of Our Martyrs Spreading West in Nostradamus: The War with Iran, see Nostradamus Iran.)
Newsweek reporters countenanced a less horrific future scenario after the coming May elections in late February. They predict a populist Harijan (or put less euphemistically, a woman of the lowest, Untouchable Hindu caste) named Mayawati might become the next prime minister and turn India inward back to the Gandian cotton-weaving wheel.
It sounds nice to Gandians, troglytes and cow hugging Hindus in dhotis, but India cannot turn back the wheel of economic engagement with the world. If she is indeed elected it will not be a coalition that will last long. New elections will be called.
Either way, if Prime Minister Singh cannot survive these challenges, the terrorists at least get a muddled Indian government that may not be able to mount a war on Pakistan.
My sense at this moment is that a fundamentalist coalition will carry Singh out of office. That would then delay a showdown with Pakistan after the monsoon is over, in October.
(16 April 2009)
2009 is the year when the consequences of botched and rushed partitions of India and Palestine in 1947 come home to either diplomatic breakthrough or war. A full accounting of what could happen can be found in Predictions for 2009.