HogueProphecy.com » South Korea

Obama in Asia and the “Wad” to End All Wars

John Hogue — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:31:18 +0000

Taiwan's future flag.

Friends,
President Obama on his first and epic diplomatic tour of Asia visiting Japan, China, attending a regional summit in Singapore and making final hop to South Korea at last restores the US on a path of engagement with the Western Pacific nations, long neglected by President Bush’s eight years of foreign policy myopia and obsession with Iraq. Whether Obama will gain more than a glad-handing and cup cake man handling by Chinese and Japanese remains to be seen. I will say this from the prophetic angle, Obama’s Asian odyssey will go down as an event marking an important shift in US foreign policy that will, for better or worse, bring the nation’s focus out of the Middle East and onto the region where the real future challenges lie: the western Pacific rim. It is a major theme in my upcoming digital book Predictions for 2010, which will be posted at HogueProphecy.com on 1 December.

I love to be wrong sometimes, don’t you? I especially like to be wrong when prophecy’s potential forecasts a possible future that we dare not take and didn’t. I wrote and posted the article below only to my private newsletter list members back on 22 February 2008. At that time I harbored hope that Taiwan would step back from what was a real temptation of its politicians to declare independence from China right when the whole world would be watching the 2008 Beijing Olympics a half-year later.

Reading the article “The Wad to End all Wars” today may shine a light on an interpreter’s hits, hopes and misses. I believe the predictions take on more significance now, as Obama on Air Force One flies back to Washington from Asia. Also, there’s this little song at the end I invite you to sing along with me.

***

A root motivation for warfare goes all the way back to its primal beginnings when ballistics were comprised of stones and sharpened sticks. People go to war to conquer and control economic resources. That is about to change, and it begins in this pivotal year of 2008. With 2008, we enter a new era when economic need will impede future wars, rather than instigate them.

In a new global society, economy has been freed of the constraints of national identity and political borders. The new year will test my prediction in the most potentially dangerous way. As far back as 1994, I have recorded on radio and television my concern about the potential of a Sino-Taiwanese war.

The mainland communist regime, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ever since its inception in 1949, has laid claim to the province of Taiwan on the Island of Formosa, separated by the 80-mile-wide Strait of Formosa. It became a haven for what remained of Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT (Kuomintang) nationalist army and government, which Mao’s peasant armies had pushed off Mainland China in 1949 after decades of civil war. During the Cold War, Chiang fortified the island with US help and declared it the only legitimate Chinese regime: the Republic of China (ROC). His dream was to stretch out from Taiwan and take China back from the communists.

Over time the US and United Nations had to see political realities rather than this fiction and by the mid 1970s, the PRC was invited to take a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as the recognized Mainland Chinese state. Geriatrics and generational changes brought a slow eclipse of Nationalist Chinese control over Taiwan and it became more independently Taiwanese in national and political identity.

On 30 September 2007, Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party approved a resolution professing separate identity from China and called for the enactment of a new constitution for a “normal country,” called “Taiwan.”

In 2008, a popular desire among the Taiwanese for official independence from China will prompt President Chen to make the 2008 presidential election a referendum on whether Taiwan should enter the United Nations as a separate nation.

The PRC has been dead set against it, or any other step that would formalize a break of what they view as a Chinese union of provinces by what they consider a secessionist, illegal government.

The temptation this summer will be high among leaders of the Taipei government to declare independence from China during the upcoming Beijing Olympics in August 2008. Would Beijing make good its threat to take Taiwan back by force with the whole world represented at the Olympics, watching?

A greater obstacle than losing international face is at stake.

Today, if China threatened an invasion across the Strait of Formosa, it would disrupt $80 billion dollars of business it does with Taiwan annually. Conversely, Taiwan listening to its fire-breathing secessionists would most certainly suffer a Beijing boycott before battle and invasion that might cripple Taipei’s economy overnight. In our times of global economic interconnectivity, if you bomb your enemy’s factory you destroy your own goods. If the US should go to war with China over Taiwan, it would be attacking its own sweatshops making merchandise. If China struck out at the US, it would be killing its customers. Big war in the old sense has become unprofitable. Thus, the opportunity for an era of intelligent diplomacy has never been in greater demand than in this new century.

Crying uncle, Taiwan might be amendable to a diplomatic solution offered by the next US president. I call it the “Time Out” plan. Taiwan would agree to full restoration to China after a cooling off period of 80 years. Perhaps that would be more than enough time for its free market economic philosophy to undermine the communist regime in Beijing. The pen signing business transactions is mightier than the sword. It will be the wad of money and the mutually profitable promise of commerce that breaks down all borders and ends all future wars

Who knows? Perhaps the new lyrics I wrote to Stephen Foster’s “Camp Town Races” might apply to what happens next:

The Chinese people sing this song:
Buddha! Buddha!
The Chinese race is a billion strong
Oh, the Buddha Day!
Goin’ communistic all night,
Goin’ communistic all day,
I bet my money on Mao Zedong,
Somebody bet on Taipei.

***

UPDATE (circa December 2009):
The fire-breathing Taiwanese politicians did put a cork in independence referendums, thank goodness, though the danger of a mainland invasion of Taiwan remains quite real.

Now a new prophecy about Taiwan. The new US administration has arrived. When I wrote the above I visualized Hillary Clinton teamed up with Obama. Moreover, I saw her going to China and Taiwan to arrange something like the solution described above. What I didn’t clearly see was the label she would wear. Not a president or vice president but apparently the vision of the negotiator will be fulfilled as Obama’s Secretary of State.

John Hogue

(19 November 2009)

Sample my commentary on prophetic themes of most current and urgent interest here:

Nostradamus Antichrist

Pope Prophecy Malachy

Iran War 2009

Predictions for Winter 2009

Kim Jong Il has No Dong

John Hogue — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:56:40 +0000

Friends,
Really. It’s true. The poor fellow. The Stalinist holdout pouting on the parade stand at endless processions of goose-stepping North Korean stalwart beef-dumpling guy and girlie movie troops is ever ready to “launch” his Dong. (God and the Dear Leader knows you never see shots of the real and emaciated North Korean army on maneuvers with their rusting tanks and guns massed along the Demilitarized Zone.) Kim Jong’s Il Dong breaks up in stages and falls into the sea every time and there’s no “thanks for the tip coming,” even though his Il begotten Dong is a joke.

This stroke debilitated, Hennessy cognac sotting, Dr. Evil inspiring, hobbit-sized potentate with the big bouffant has played political poker with the world since he took over the family dictatorship business from dear old dead dad (Kim Il-sung) in 1994. Kim ever since holds his cards close to his chubby chest, threatens to go No-Dong ballistic at the mere hint of UN rumblings to sanction exports of the only thing North Korea seems capable of exporting. Kim can’t even ship kimchee but his repressed, enslaved and starving citizens can smuggle missile technology and nuclear weapons know-how to other developing nuclear powers — some of them, like Pakistan, squandering national treasure, impoverishing their people nearly as much to build a nuclear armed Dong as that Il fellow.

The poker-faced lip-hanger in oversized shades sitting at the gambling table of world politics has played a good game of apocalyptic bluff. When Kim squeaks doomsday threats, the world notices him, not his weak hand, and gives North Korea some leeway, some shipments of food, some time to dismantle it’s a-bomb program. He in turn stops waving his Dong and threatening missile launch on Japan, American even. His shipments of missile parts, plans and plutonium crockery to rogue nations goes unmolested since 1994. US presidents like B. Clinton, then G.W. Bush are suckered into giving time and money to pay off Kim’s phony gambling bet to dismantle his nuclear weapons program. When they were distracted by other world affairs, the kid ever goes back to his underground chemistry set playground and lights off his pipe-bomb sized atomic tests.

Kim is back since April 2009 from his long disappearance, recovering from a stroke. He’s back on the dictator dias as pinch-mouthed dogan of national goose-stepping soldiers on parade. He’s leaner and meaner than before, applauding the atomic bomb underground tests far less Manhattan project proof that he boasts. The last underground lab experiment light-off singeing his ploofey quaff got him a bang the size of a tactical Soviet tactical nuke from 1962. Now he thinks he can blow up the world with a bomb yield less than a third the size of “Little Boy” the nickname of the uranium A-bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. His version of Little Boy is probably the size of a bus. Let’s stick that little dingus on the tip of your scud, Kim and see your missiles fall harmlessly into the sea — more like they’ll lose their erection on the launch pad.

The little Dear Leader calls his old Cold War Soviet Scud missile knockoffs East Wind in English. That’s No Dong in Korean.

If he’s pushed to it, No Dong will fall on Seoul and Tokyo by the hundreds. I wouldn’t worry. Tokyo has a better chance being stepped on by Godzilla. An Il cabbage kimchee wind from Kim Jong is a greater threat.

In May, Kim Jong Il was reelected as North Korea’s penultimate Dear Leader. He set off his largest nuke test on 25 May and celebrated it with salvoes of his firework Scud rockets popping and falling into the sea. Some Korea watchers think this launch and lose missile show is all bravado masking a succession struggle inside Pyongyang.

Kim Jong Il is apparently getting mopey as a Rev. Jim Jones at a congressional delegation visit. He’s looking into his near future and seeing nothing but Kool-Aid red commie banners and everyone in North Korea will be soon summoned to line up for a taste of Jonestown julep like it was French Guyana time for his North Korean cult of personality.

Kim is ready to unleash his chee in a Jonestown-national fit of auto-suicide. He wants us to think he can take down North Korea, his cult of personality, his hermetically sealed off Stalinist kingdom and take down his enemies too: the South Koreans, the Japanese and about 100,000 American military forces based in Japan, Korea or on station off the Korean Peninsula in Naval vessels.

Even China has had enough. China’s the closest thing to a North Korean friend agreed with the US and other major powers on the UN Security Council to construct a system to inspect suspect cargoes in and out of North Korea despite Pyongyang’s warning that it would regard such checks as an act of war.

There he goes again, one last round at the poker table, playing the “mad dictator” ready to blow his top at the slightest mention of sanctions and quarantine of his missile and atomic weapons export business. He’s going to jump off that ledge at the mere mention of a United Nation Security Council threat of sanctions just because little Kim was launching salvos of bottle-rocket rage and throwing nuclear barrel bombs down mine shafts.

Government controlled North Korean newspapers shoot off their apoplectic mouths last week saying they would unleash their 1.5 million emaciated soldiers and rusty tanks in a “merciless offensive” if provoked. The US, which for decades has peacefully protected South Korea with nuclear weapons, has suddenly become the culprit of an “undisguised declaration of nuclear war against” North Korea. The newspapers ramp up the rambling delusions saying the North after its nuclear mineshaft shenanigans can now wage sustained nuclear war with America.

“It’s self-evident,” say Pyongyang papers, “that we cannot just sit by and wait to die when the U.S. publicly declared it will attack our republic with nuclear weapons.”

So here it comes. I’ll jump off this ledge before I starve or go bankrupt. Watch out. Don’t come any closer. This time I’ll really do it!

My sense is that Kim is pulling another poker game bluff. He expects to scare the bejesus crickey out of the new US president to get more aid for his soon-to-collapse “Jonestown” nation. Pyongyang’s pug in a pale gray jump suit never waved his Dong in an American president’s face so brashly because he thinks Barack Obama is weak.

Kim Jong Il is in for a surprise. Obama is not the new naive Jack Kennedy kid at the poker table, and Kim is not even got a hundredth of the nuclear capability Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev had to back his bluff of nuclear parity with Kennedy’s USA in the early 1960s.

Khrushchev made out that he had thousands of nuclear missiles when in fact he had less than 150 ICBMs. At the Cuban Missile Crisis (and Casino) of 1962, he pushed like chips across a poker table a large portion of his pathetically small missile arsenal. He pretended he had a full Cuba flush, never sensing that the US president would call his bluff, react decisively with a counter poker bluff of blockade-cum-quarantine of Soviet Ships in and out of Cuba. Khrushchev blinked, showed his hand, pulled his SS-3, 4, 5 regional ballistic and Luna tactical nuclear missile chips, off the table, out of Havana, faster than a box of cigars.

As the song goes, Kim: “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when the fold ‘em, know when to walk away.”

Run, Kim. Know when to run! It’s time to retire to your twisty water sled and swimming pool outside of Pyongyang.

Kim Jong Il can’t even mount his scruffy scud Dong with a working warhead, let alone shoot the damn thing and hit anything but a pokey flounder in the Sea of Japan.

I predict, that before Obama has seen his first year in office out, he will surprise the world, and especially surprise Kim “Jim Jones” Jong Il. In short, Obama will prepare the US Navy under UN permission to board North Korean ships to inspect their holds. Kim will threaten to start World War Three if US ships even come close.

Obama will reply albeit in far finer and lofty words, “Come up to the penalty line. Give it a shot. Let the world see what you got.”

If Dongs fly they will miss their marks. If North Korean hordes advance into the DMZ they will fall out of line from lack of food, fuel and spare parts.

Kim Jong Il’s regime will collapse, not from a war but from a US president calling his bluff and exposing his pathetic hand in the next and last North Korean poker game any American president is willing to play at the ledge, at the hedge, at the brink.

Jump, little Kim, jump!

John Hogue
(11 June 2009)